Emissions from commercial vehicles in EU 27

Project duration: 2020 - 2023

Funded by: EU, Horizon 2020 Projekt 

Project team: Hausberger, Absenger, Dippold

In the H 2020 project LONGRUN, technologies were developed to reduce the consumption and emissions of heavy commercial vehicles. For diesel engines, the combustion process was improved and optimised for HVO as a fuel and combined with hybridisation. For gas engines, purely engine-related improvements have been made. At the same time, options for reducing air and rolling resistance were investigated. In the emissions research area, the extensions to the VECTO CO2 certification software required to map the new technologies were analysed (see also next project) and the effects of the technologies on emissions and energy consumption of commercial vehicles in the EU 27 region were calculated. The emission effects were simulated for three scenarios using the NEMO (Network Emission Model) software developed at the institute:

• "EURO VI E": Emission levels of future new registrations will remain at EURO VI E level, the proportion of alternative energies will remain at 2022 level.
• "BASELINE": like EURO VI E + strongly increasing share of new registrations of battery electric and hydrogen drives to achieve the CO2 fleet targets proposed by the EU Commission .
• "LONGRUN": like BASELINE, but with the emission levels of the vehicle technologies developed in LONGRUN.

Table 1: CO2 fleet target values of the EU Commission for new commercial vehicle fleets

By improving engine efficiency, hybridisation and reduced rolling and air resistance in LONGRUN, energy consumption can be reduced by around 6% compared to the BASELINE scenario. Together with increasing electrification, this results in a reduction of around 20% by 2050 compared to EURO VI E technology, although a significant reduction compared to today is not to be expected due to increasing transport demand. In terms of NOx emissions, EURO VI E already results in a significant reduction; with LONGRUN, an additional 60% NOx reduction can be achieved.

Figure 1: Comparison of energy consumption and NOx emissions of HDVs in EU 27 in the 3 scenarios

In order to reduce fossil CO2 emissions, renewable energies must be introduced on a large scale while energy consumption remains roughly the same. According to analyses by NESTE, the remaining diesel demand of around 32 Mtoe in 2050 could be covered by HVO with a global potential of over 800 Mtoe from various waste materials. Electricity and H2 would also have to be generated 100% from non-fossil fuels by 2050 in order to achieve the CO2 targets. If the upstream greenhouse gas emissions are taken into account, the LONGRUN scenario for the SNF in the EU results in greenhouse gas reductions of around 80% by 2050 compared to 2023. Compared to the BASELINE scenario, which has the same assumptions regarding electricity and H2, renewable diesel fuel still results in greenhouse gas reductions of over 65% in 2050.

Figure 2: Comparison of exhaust gas CO2 and WTW GHG emissions of HDVs in the 3 scenarios